Despite production cut from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, we expect the oil prices to remain muted owing to the robust supply from US Shale and weakening global macros. Thus, we do not foresee subsidy sharing in FY21/22E as well. Besides, ONGC will generate OCF yield of 32.1/35.1% and dividend yield of 9.7% over FY21/22E. Though the stock has remained out of flavor given GoI's stake sale to achieve its disinvestment target, it still remains a key overhang on the stock (in the last 2 years, GoI's shareholding shrank from 67.7% to 62.8%). We value ONGC at Rs 173/sh (8x Dec-21E standalone core EPS (adj. for dividend income) + OVL EPS and Rs 31 from other investments) vs the consensus TP of Rs 184. We maintain BUY on ONGC following an inline performance with our PAT estimate in 3QFY20. The current valuations after adjusting for investments (OVL and others) for FY21/22 are 1.5/1.3x EV/EBITDA, 3.6/3.1x PER. Such pessimism is unwarranted in our opinion.
KNR delivered yet another steady quarterly performance. Order wins are on track with 4QFY20 ask at Rs 8bn to meet the Rs 30bn FY20 order intake guidance. KNR has entered into Kerala BOT stake sale arrangement with Cube Highways for equity consideration of Rs 3.9bn (expected by Mar/Apr'20). For 3 HAM projects Rs 1.7bn investment, KNR expects to receive Rs 3.3bn over the next 4yrs. Strong balance sheet, periodic BOT/HAM equity churn and robust execution capability reinforces our positive stance on KNR. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Slowdown in government ordering (2) Higher crude and cement prices (3) Increase in interest rates and (4) Further liquidity tightening in the financial sector. We maintain BUY on KNR with SOTP-based TP of Rs 376/sh (valuing core EPC business 18x FY21EPS at Rs 317/sh, Subsidiaries Rs 60/sh). KNR delivered yet another steady quarter with Revenue/EBIDTA/APAT beat/(miss) of (0.4)/17/(12)% respectively.
Despite near term weakness, we continue to like DCL for its strong focus on remunerative pricing and cost reduction measures. We expect demand revival in FY21E to further aid earnings recovery. Thus, we value the co at 5.7x Sep'21E EBITDA (in-line its 5-yr mean multiple). Maintain BUY with TP Rs 500/share (implies EV of USD 47/MT). DCL currently trades at an extremely low val of 2.7/3.3x FY21/22E EBITDA and EV of USD 25/MT. We maintain BUY with TP Rs 500 (5.7x its Sep21E EBITDA). In 3QFY20, DCL posted weak results (in-line EBITDA), hit by sharp demand contraction in AP/T markets (short term pain in our view).
We believe that the current valuation multiples (8.5x EV/e FY21) are already pricing in a full privatisation scenario. We believe that only potential improvement in earnings and cash flows can drive re-rating of the stock. But this will obviously be realized with a lag and is contingent upon the stake acquirer's ability to bring about efficiencies. Our SOTP target is Rs 452/sh (5.5x Dec-21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Dec-21E EV/e for marketing and pipeline business and Rs 145/sh for other investments). We maintain NEUTRAL on BPCL with a TP of Rs 452 (vs consensus TP of Rs 513) following a performance in-line with our PAT estimates in 3QFY20. 8.2% beat at EBITDA level was due to higher inventory gains of Rs 5.32bn vs est Rs 3.63bn.
We maintain our conviction on GSPL based on (1) Stable volume growth (+5% CAGR over FY20-22E to 42.5mmscmd) (2) Smoothening of cyclicality in its earnings, post acquisition of a controlling stake in Gujarat Gas (3) Steady cash flows (FCF of Rs 32.80bn over FY20-23E) from transmission business that will turn the company's position to a net cash one. We value the transmission business using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) at Rs 138/sh (WACC of 10.5% and Terminal growth rate of 0%). To this, we add Rs 115/sh as value of its investments in Gujarat Gas, Sabarmati Gas and other investments to arrive at the target price of Rs 253/sh. We maintain BUY on GSPL though the Q3 PAT missed our estimates. Benign spot LNG prices will continue to (1) Drive volume growth from industrial customers and (2) Encourage RIL to continue using LNG. Our EPS estimates for FY20/21/22E stand at Rs 17.3/19.7/21.3 vs consensus EPS of Rs 28.1/25.7/23.7. Our SOTP based TP is Rs 253/share (consensus TP Rs 272).
We reiterate BUY and expect Gulf Oil to outperform industry leader Castrol. However, we believe that the co's performance is now impacted by the slowing industry scenario and moderating growth rates (volumes have declined over Jun-Dec19). We trim down our earnings by ~6% over FY20-22E and reduce our target multiple to 20x (vs. 22x earlier) to factor in the above. Also, the recovery in factory fill volumes is likely to be delayed. Key risk: Faster than expected adoption of EVs. Gulf Oils 3QFY20 adj. volumes declined 2% YoY amidst the downturn in the auto industry. However, EBITDA margin surprised at 18.4% (+260bps YoY) owing to stable input costs. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 995 based on Dec-21 EPS.
We believe that Brand Factory will continue to reel under the stress of a consumption slowdown for a couple of quarters. Ergo, the management has re-calibrated its expansion plans from 25 to 18 stores in FY20. While Brand Factory struggles, we believe Central will chug along and add 5 stores annually. We revise our DCF based TP downwards to Rs. 500 (earlier Rs. 550) which largely mimics the downward revision in FY21/22 EBITDA estimates by 8.8% and 11% respectively. Maintain BUY FLFL's revenue grew 3.1% YoY to Rs. 16.7bn (4.4% below estimated Rs. 17.4bn). Revenue was mainly impacted by the poor performance of its off-price format Brand Factory. While, top-line disappointed, margins were protected. Gross margins grew by 146 bps YoY to 34.9% (vs est: 34.5%). Adj. EBITDA margins (Pre-IND-AS) stood at 10.2% (vs est: 8.4%). The beat was a function of trickledown effect of a depressed top line. However better than expected cost efficiencies helped reduce the operational beat. The company reported Adj. PAT at Rs 0.57 bn.
Maintain BUY on Hero as (1) Hero has successfully defended market share in the 2W segment in the current downturn (2) The stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 15/14x FY20/21E; however, the extent of price hikes on BS-VI will delay the recovery in our view. We lower our target P/E multiple to 16x (vs. 18x earlier), which is in-line with its average historic trading multiple, to factor in a delayed recovery (2HFY21) and a slower than expected ramp up in the premium segment. Heros 3QFY20 EBITDA margin surprised at 14.8% despite weak volumes. However, the outlook over FY21 remains mixed as management expects a recovery only in 2HFY21 as customers get accustomed to price hikes (12-15%) on BS-VI models. Retain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 2,980 (16x on Dec-21 EPS).
We have a Neutral rating and a TP of Rs 3,440 based on 20x FY22 EPS. With improved performance across geographies we believe the multiple is well justified. US accounts for 36% of revenues and the key products - gNuvaring and gCopaxone account for ~20% of our FY22 estimates. Despite factoring in these launches along with sustenance of good performance in non US markets and margin expansion as per company guidance, upside appears limited from current market price. Dr. Reddys announced acquisition of select brands of Wockhardt in India and other markets for Rs 18.5bn, which is ~3.7x FY20e sales (Rs 5bn annualised) and ~15x FY20e EV/EBIDTA. The deal adds scale (~17% of India revenues) and deepens Dr Reddys presence in the acute segment. The key 5 brands account for ~50%+ of the acquired portfolio. We expect Dr. Reddys to revive the growth (the acquired portfolio declined 15% yoy due to issues at Wockhardt) with improved serviceability of the products and increased sales & promotion. While we need to analyse the product portfolio in detail, our preliminary analysis suggests that the deal should be 1-2% EPS accretive in FY22. Maintain Neutral. TP of Rs 3,440/sh.
ABB has levers in place to mitigate slow uptick in capex. One offs/legacy project margin hit has been a disappointment and continues to restrict margin expansion. Export growth is panning out well and mitigating domestic weakness. Balance sheet has net cash Rs 19.5bn to fund growth as an when recovery pans out. We believe rich valuation price in these tailwinds and multiple re-rating is contingent on capex recovery. We maintain NEU on ABB. Key risks (1) Delays in Government capex recovery, (2) Slowdown in private investments, and (3) INR depreciation. We maintain NEU on ABB India Ltd. (ABB) with a TP of Rs 1,219/sh (42x ABB continuing business). Whilst ABB is navigating through weak economic undercurrent and holding onto growth, capex recovery will take time to pan out. Strong balance sheet, Automation Products/Solutions expertise and cross cycles experience limits downside.
